Fabien Campillo ; Dominique Hervé ; Angelo Raherinirina ; Rivo Rakotozafy - Markov analysis of land use dynamics - A Case Study in Madagascar

arima:1964 - Revue Africaine de Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées, August 27, 2014, Volume 17 - 2014 - Special issue CARI'12 - https://doi.org/10.46298/arima.1964
Markov analysis of land use dynamics - A Case Study in MadagascarArticle

Authors: Fabien Campillo ORCID1; Dominique Hervé 2; Angelo Raherinirina 3; Rivo Rakotozafy 3

  • 1 Modelling and Optimisation of the Dynamics of Ecosystems with MICro-organisme
  • 2 Gouvernance, Risque, Environnement, Développement
  • 3 Université de Fianarantsoa

We present a Markov model of a land-use dynamic along a forest corridor of Madagascar. A first approach by the maximum likelihood approach leads to a model with an absorbing state. We study the quasi-stationary distribution law of the model and the law of the hitting time of the absorbing state. According to experts, a transition not present in the data must be added to the model: this is not possible by the maximum likelihood method and we make of the Bayesian approach. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the transition matrix which in this case admits an invariant distribution law. Finally we analyze the two identified dynamics.

Volume: Volume 17 - 2014 - Special issue CARI'12
Published on: August 27, 2014
Submitted on: January 27, 2014
Keywords: Bayesian inference, Jeffreys prior, Land use dynamics, Markov model, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Quasi stationary distribution law,Inférence bayésienne; loi a priori de Jeffreys; dynamique d’usage des sols; modèles de Markov; Monte Carlo par Chaînes de Markov; loi quasi-stationnaire,[INFO] Computer Science [cs],[MATH] Mathematics [math]

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