Nicolas Bacaër ; Claude Lobry ; Tewfik Sari
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On the probability of extinction of a population in a slow periodic environment
arima:6265 -
Revue Africaine de Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées,
November 4, 2020,
Volume 32 - 2019 - 2021
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https://doi.org/10.46298/arima.6265
On the probability of extinction of a population in a slow periodic environmentArticle
Authors: Nicolas Bacaër ; Claude Lobry ; Tewfik Sari
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Nicolas Bacaër;Claude Lobry;Tewfik Sari
We study the probability of extinction of a population modelled by a linear birth-and-death process with several types in a periodic environment when the period is large compared to other time scales. This probability depends on the season and may present a sharp jump in relation to a "canard" in a slow-fast dynamical system. The point of discontinuity is determined precisely in an example with two types of individuals related to a vector-borne disease transmission model.
Keywords: periodisch,langsam-schnell,Canard,Geburts- und Todesprozess,birth-and-death process,periodic,slow-fast,canard,processus de naissance et de mort,périodique,lent-rapide,canard,[MATH]Mathematics [math],[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie