Bacaër, Nicolas and Lobry, Claude and Sari, Tewfik - On the probability of extinction of a population in a slow periodic environment

arima:6265 - Revue Africaine de la Recherche en Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées, November 4, 2020, Volume 32 - 2019 - 2021 - https://doi.org/10.46298/arima.6265
On the probability of extinction of a population in a slow periodic environment

Authors: Bacaër, Nicolas and Lobry, Claude and Sari, Tewfik

We study the probability of extinction of a population modelled by a linear birth-and-death process with several types in a periodic environment when the period is large compared to other time scales. This probability depends on the season and may present a sharp jump in relation to a "canard" in a slow-fast dynamical system. The point of discontinuity is determined precisely in an example with two types of individuals related to a vector-borne disease transmission model.


Volume: Volume 32 - 2019 - 2021
Published on: November 4, 2020
Submitted on: April 6, 2020
Keywords: periodisch,langsam-schnell,Canard,Geburts- und Todesprozess,birth-and-death process,periodic,slow-fast,canard,processus de naissance et de mort,périodique,lent-rapide,canard,[MATH]Mathematics [math],[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie


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